AI velocity makes shipping fast — and makes shipping the wrong thing easy. Evaluate before you commit weeks.
10
Worksheet Questions
100
Pre-Launch Emails
5%
Typical Conversion
30d
Decision Window
10-minute Go/No-Go worksheet
Answer in writing
Who is the user? (Specific — not "everyone".)
What problem? How are they solving it today?
Why does the current solution fail them?
Smallest version that improves their day?
How will they find you? (Be specific.)
Critical screens
Why would they pay / use weekly?
Strongest competitor — why are you better?
What does $500/mo revenue mean in users?
What kills this in 30 days?
Your unfair advantage? (Knowledge, audience, edge.)
Where good niches come from
RDR2 EXAMPLE
Companion gap
Established game/community with no good companion. Rockstar pulled theirs; gap filled.
Your own irritants
Problems that bug you weekly that no existing app solves well.
Profession-adjacent
Specialized tools for nurses, contractors, real-estate agents. Less competition, willing-to-pay.
Kill Criteria — Set Before Building
Week 1: mockups get no "I'd pay" — kill or pivot. Week 2: well-loved incumbent, no gap — kill. Month 1: can't get 100 installs with available channels — diagnose. Month 3: conv to paid < 1% — iterate or kill. Month 6: $50/mo or less, no path — accept it's a portfolio piece.
Pro Tip
Killing fast is not failure. It's the discipline that lets you ship the next thing that works.
Validation playbook
Honest download projections (yr 1)
Cowork mockups 3 variations. Show 10 real users.
Pre-launch landing page Email signup. Share in niche communities.
100 emails before code If you can't, distribution is the real problem.
Beta with feedback Real users find real product issues fast.